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Our second session of Day 3 continued with Toni Moss, AmeriCatalyst, LLC CEO and Logan Mohtashami, Senior Lending Manager, AMC Lending Group & Housing Data Analyst, providing economic forecasts and abundant food for thought on the future of homeownership and professional growth in the American economy.
Mohtashami mentioned that demographics is the single most important thing to economics, and something in which America will have an advantage over the rest of the world. He identified our current longest job expansion of 81 months and mentioned that soon we will have the longest economic expansion, asserting that the future for America will be better than for the rest of the world.
Millennials are the biggest buyers of homes in America and the world. Americans are getting married later and having children later. Mohtashami forecasts that in the years 2020-2024, homeownership will pick up as millennials have children, albeit it later than previous generations.
The demographics for housing will start to get better not worse, he predicts. The income brackets in this country cater to the educated class, and Mohtashami stated that if you’re not educated or trained, you will most likely not become a homeowner in the future.
More than 33 percent of all Americans have a college education; 70 percent of student loan debt is under $14,000 dollars; less than 3 percent of student loan debt is over $100,000; and 30 percent of all student loan debts are held by college dropouts. Mohtashami pointed out that this last group is the most troubled that doesn’t receive a lot of discussion, but even their debt is manageable.
As this debt is handled, millennials enter life milestones, and educational attainment leads to capable wages, from 2020-2024 there will be housing demand that leads to construction, he affirmed.
Responding to attendees’ concerns about the future of homeownership and professional growth, Mohtashami discussed how the U.S. has had recent job openings around the 6 million figure, bigger than some European countries’ entire populations. Mohtashami stated that he isn’t most worried about the shortage of jobs, including as a result of automation and robotics; he’s preoccupied with the replacement of jobs as the older generation leaves the workforce.
He accentuated his point by reminding audience members that the U.S. is the only country in the world that has a growing prime age labor force, forecasting that these Americans will enter homeownership and impact the housing ecosystem. Mohtashami believes the best is yet to come.
Moss took a moment to mention that she holds views that contradict Mohtashami’s and reiterated the thought-provoking characteristic of having significantly different interpretations of the same or similar data.
Abutting Moss’s incredible keynote, Mohtashami offered a distinct analysis of current housing ecosystem conditions. The power delivered by showcasing these two points of view displayed the intricacies in the industry and the diverse possibilities for its future.